Obama has 10 point lead Oct. 13

[Rick336]

Obama has 10 point lead in the daily gallup poll with 22 days to go before the election:

click here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111112/Ga...ead-51-41.aspx

Click here too:http://www.electoral-vote.com/



Rick

[ctozrn]

This is VERY unscientific but I noticed on facebook groups that there are 2 groups called "One million for....." one is for Obama and one group is for McCain. There are 192,000 plus in McCain's group and 795,000 for Obama. I know this is probably a generational difference since facebook is mainly for teenagers and young adults but I find it hopeful!

Christine

[Matt Algren]

Yesterday I saw a poll on fivethirtyeight.com (which is a great site, by the way) that showed a ten point Obama lead in Colorado. This was the first time that a major poll had been released for Colorado in several weeks. The last one showed them dead even after the GOP convention.

[Daniel]

I have seen many such polls saying the same thing in the last week. That said, I also read an interesting article on polling and voter turnout.


Do Polls Lie About Race?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/we...12zernike.html

In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey — widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed — that concluded racial bias would cost Mr. Obama six percentage points in the final outcome. He is, of course, about six points ahead in current polls. See? He’s going to lose.

If he does, it wouldn’t be the first time that polls have overstated support for an African-American candidate. Since 1982, people have talked about the Bradley effect, where even last-minute polls predict a wide margin of victory, yet the black candidate goes on to lose, or win in a squeaker. (In the case that lent the phenomenon its name, Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied to pollsters about their support for an African-American.

The idea here is that polls may not reflect what voters do when they actual cast their votes. As such, I think this is going to be a very tight election in some states. And we may see a repeat of the last election as far as a recounting of votes.

Personally, I think it is very heartening that the Obama campaign has worked relentlessly to reach voters at the local level. If anything, this is what is going to make the difference. It's the means by which Obama whomped Clinton re the democratic nomination. She didn't have the same kind of strategy or organization.

Obama's community organizing has served him well! I'm betting that he wins, not by a landslide, but by something like 2 or 3 points. We are still, after all, a very divided country. One upside of a Obama presidency? It would be the opposite of the last 8 years that exhibited a 'winner take all' mentality. Bush won by only a very small percentage and he acted like he had a mandate. And that's no way to govern.

[Alecto]

Thanks Danial. I'd heard about the research in question, but didn't have a linkeable article and didn't want to bring it up as "I totally heard this somewhere: trufax!".

As for facebook: I read an interesting article on yahoo yesterday (which, oddly, I can't seem to locate again :- /) about a number of new-ish laws (and some plain misinformation and lies by local folks in smal college towns) that keep students, specifically from out-of-state, from voting.

[u-dog]

I recently read an article (can't remember where but it might have been on fivethirtyeight.com ) by Bradley's pollster who maintains that the "Bradley effect" is a myth. The polls that showed (back in 82) that Bradley was ahead were seriously flawed and overstated Bradleys lead in the days and weeks leading up to the election. His lead was actually well within the margin of error.

Also, even accepting that there is such a thing as a Bradley effect the situation in 2008 is significantly different now than it was 25 years ago. Voters don't have a reason to lie to pollsters. The rise of the religious right has given racist conservatives plenty of cover. They can cite any number of "acceptable" reasons for not voting for the black guy. (abortion/gun rights/gay rights etc etc etc)

CBS/New York Times is coming out with a poll tomorrow that shows Obama with a 14 point lead over McCain nationwide. CBS/NYT has consistently shown Obama about 3 point stronger than the average of all polls but even so ... thats an eleven point lead ... and even with a +/- 3 point margin of error its still an 8 point lead.

McCain CANNOT win this election on a State by state basis ... he is too far behind in the Electoral College race. The only thing that can save his ass is something HUGE on a NATIONAL scale. Alien invasion? Obama caught sleeping with a farm animal? It looks pretty unlikely.

PS: I will try to track down a link to that article

I found it:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...lective_m.html

[Alecto]

I'm figuring he'll resort to election fraud, actually. Only time will tell!

[u-dog]

Election fraud has to be perpetrated state by state and 8 points is a HELL of a lot of Election fraud. Even if the Republicans could steal Florida and Ohio (again) McCain would still lose the election

[ctozrn]

I heard there is to be a big wedding days maybe a week before the election between Bristol Palin and her baby's daddy, the dashing Levi Johnston. I don't know if this is just a big rumor or not. I don't know how it could possibly help the McCain- Palin campaign. Maybe just a distraction....

I read in an interview with the groom to be yesterday, that he has dropped out of his Senior year of high school to work. I can't believe that it seems to be an ok thing to do. I am sure if this was a democrat's kid, there would be an outcry.....

Christine

[BruceChris]

High School? We don't need no stinkin' High School. ESpecially when you marry the bosses daughter.

BC

[tdogg]

Maybe this is why education is not a priority for Republicans (at least in funding).

Recently, the local paper discussed the Bradley effect in regards to Prop 8. Proponents are using this to lead people to believe that on election day, millions will show up at the polls and actually vote yes on 8. They say voters are reluctant to show support for Prop 8 in polls, as they could be labeled as anti-gay. It all sounded like BS to me.

I'm not saying the 'Bradley effect' doesn't exist, but at least in regards to the above it seemed to be another lie generated by the Yes on 8 people. In regards to the presidential election, I do believe there are some who will not vote for Obama because he is a black man. However, at this point I can't see him losing, except like others have said because of some huge surprise event. I can't imagine a forced wedding between high-schoolers would be such an event. It's really sad that this boy isn't going to finish high school. The adults in his life should be really encouraging him to do so. His future will be so limited otherwise. Really bad choice.

[wmanion]

From what I read, it seems that he and Bristol both have dropped out of High School. I just hope they both have the insight to continue their education.

Bill

[Rick336]

Originally Posted by wmanion

From what I read, it seems that he and Bristol both have dropped out of High School. I just hope they both have the insight to continue their education.

Bill

These kids nowadays are dropping out of school and having babies. He'll be working the window at McDonalds while she's at home barefooted, beating on the TV with a hammer to get a good picture for American Idol.

Where are the parents!!!


Rick

[Matt Algren]

Originally Posted by tdogg

Maybe this is why education is not a priority for Republicans (at least in funding).

Recently, the local paper discussed the Bradley effect in regards to Prop 8. Proponents are using this to lead people to believe that on election day, millions will show up at the polls and actually vote yes on 8. They say voters are reluctant to show support for Prop 8 in polls, as they could be labeled as anti-gay. It all sounded like BS to me.

That was at least a factor in 2004. People came out for the Presidential and voted for anti-gay amendments while they were there.

[Jennifer5]

Originally Posted by u-dog

Election fraud has to be perpetrated state by state and 8 points is a HELL of a lot of Election fraud. Even if the Republicans could steal Florida and Ohio (again) McCain would still lose the election

That's what I have figured too... and this makes me hopeful considering what has happened in the last two elections.

Originally Posted by Rick336

These kids nowadays are dropping out of school and having babies. He'll be working the window at McDonalds while she's at home barefooted, beating on the TV with a hammer to get a good picture for American Idol.

Where are the parents!!!


Rick

Being 17 and having a friend who is 15 and wants a baby, this whole idea scares me. This girl would be a mom right now is she didn't have a mother who stopped her (since she has dealt with being in that situation she understands).

There are not enough reasons for some people to stay in school and continue their education. I think that what Obama and Biden have been staying resently about the 'American Dream' is very true (thinking specifically of Biden's speech in Ohio the other day); for kids now, many of us have a hard time believing that we really can do anything if we just give all we've got and do our best. With a level playing field where we honestly we had a very real chance of reaching the top, I think a lot of things would change included the attitudes of the people.

[u-dog]

Originally Posted by Jennifer5

That's what I have figured too... and this makes me hopeful considering what has happened in the last two elections.


Being 17 and ...

SEVENTEEN !!! Who gave you permission to be 17? You need to slow down girl !

[Jennifer5]

Originally Posted by u-dog

SEVENTEEN !!! Who gave you permission to be 17? You need to slow down girl !

I guess you get to say that... I've been here a while now.

I'm not longer the youngest on the forum.
Or am I?! I honestly don't know, but I doubt it.

Part of me wishes I could slow it down... part of me is perfectly fine with it as it is.

[u-dog]

and that is JUST how it should be !

[Jennifer5]

Originally Posted by u-dog

and that is JUST how it should be !

I suppose, being the baby in the group was nice though.

[Rick336]

North Carolina turns BLUE!!


For the first time since the presidential campaigns began, traditionally red North Carolina turns blue in the polls. Barack Obama pulls ahead of John McCain by one percentage point 48% to 47% in the latest opinion poll of likely voters. Let's hope it remains blue for just two more weeks!!!

Yeee Haaa!!!!!



Rick